And yet book sales are down. Meaning a) that 4.176 billion of those BookTok views resulted in no sales, and b) those 24 million sales that did happen were not additional sales for the industry. They were sales that didn’t go to another author/publisher.

“The summer is turning out to be a tough one for book sales.” So says Publishers Weekly‘s Jim Milliott.

Milliott explains: “Unit sales of print books once again fell last week, dropping 7.6% compared to the week ended August 13, 2022 at outlets that report to Circana BookScan. And once again, the once sturdy adult fiction segment had a down week compared to a year ago. And also once again, the reason for the decline in adult fiction is not hard to find—the lack of titles that can match the sales velocity that books by Colleen Hoover and other BookTok-fueled authors achieved last year.”

As always, Jim Milliott has details of the titles that are topping the charts, with sales numbers, but what’s not explored in Jim’s piece, once we set aside the three “once again” reminders that this is not some statistical anomaly, are the implications of his last line as quoted:

“The reason for the decline in adult fiction is not hard to find—the lack of titles that can match the sales velocity that books by Colleen Hoover and other BookTok-fueled authors achieved last year.”

Leaving the big question, what has happened to the BookTok magic wand? And are publishers – and the wider industry – prepared for BookTok’s self-evidently waning influence?

BookTok of course rode the Pandemic bonanza of unexpected extra reading time, and publishers reaped the rewards, but with the Pandemic (for now) in the rear-view mirror, not only is reading time reduced, but screen time to spend on BookTok is reduced, meaning those undeniably fantastical figures the industry experts love to throw about, that show how BookTok can save the industry amid the economic downturn, are little more than history. If it was ever for real.

Absent a ban, which is still a possibility –

– BookTok will continue to be a key component in driving sales of books for some lucky authors that attract or buy influencer attention, but the Midas touch is no more, and on top of this we have the cold reality that a sale that goes to a BookTok recommended title and author means a sale not going to another author or title.

In this respect, the slow fading of BookTok’s influence on the industry may not be such a bad thing.

167 billion BookTok “views, reviews and recommendations” sounds phenomenal, of course, but let’s step outside the hype and the industry wishful thinking and ask, where are the 167 billion accompanying sales?

They don’t exist, is the cruel reality. In fact, real book sales are heading south even as publishers continue to wallow in the complacency that the mythical BookTok numbers bring.

Yes, BookTok bumped up sales of selected books, but not as many as it once did. Per Kristen McLean’s Circana BookScan August report on July print sales, “While we’re seeing the overall BookTok numbers start to lose a little velocity, there are plenty of new voices emerging from the platform.”

How many of those new voices are being paid for by publishers buying favours from influencers is anyone’s guess, but no question the organic nature of the original BookTok phenomenon has been steadily giving way to publisher-influenced influencers. But even with this trend, BookTok-enhanced sales are slipping.

Yet publishers are so wrapped up in the hype they are not seeing the bigger picture.

Per the New York Times last month, “posts tagged #ColleenHoover have been viewed more than 4.2 billion times, and her books have sold more than 24 million copies.”

And yet book sales are down. Meaning a) that 4.176 billion of those 4.2 billion BookTok views resulted in no sales, and b) those 24 million sales that did happen were not additional sales for the industry. They were sales that didn’t go to another author/publisher.

The NYT, wanting to make a meal of the no more than mildly interesting industry development that BookTok’s parent company ByteDance is launching its own publishing arm, told us that US sales “driven by more than 100 authors with large BookTok followings reached $760 million in 2022, a rise of 60 percent over 2021, according to Circana BookScan, which tracks print sales. So far this year, sales have gone up nearly 40 percent over last year.”

That will be up nearly 40% for the chosen BookTok lottery winners, but as Milliott’s “once again” report make clear, sales for the rest of the industry are simply not reflecting this BookTok winning streak. Quite the opposite, in fact.

So let’s be clear about this: sales of BookTok titles may be up 40% this year, but across the industry, US sales are not up 40%. Nor 4%. Not even 1%.

I’ll let Jim Milliott deflate the bubble gently. This from PW earlier this month.

“After unit sales of print books were basically flat in the first quarter of 2023 compared to 2022, they finished the first half of the year down 2.7%. Sales fell from 363.4 million in the first six months of 2022 to 353.5 million this year at outlets that report to Circana BookScan.”

Obviously we’re comparing revenue numbers (NYT) and unit numbers (PW), so it’s not black and white, but the message is clear however we look at it. BookTok does not actually deliver the fantasy industry-saving gains the hype would have us believe.

And Milliott’s numbers ram home that point for us. The decline in H1 2023 unit sales comes despite the Prince Harry self-pity tome bumping up the industry’s bottom line, and per Milliott, the aforementioned 2.7% decline in H1 2023 “followed a 6.6% drop in the first six months of 2022 compared to 2021.”

The reality is BookTok is a great advertising tool for a handful of authors, and yes, it is bringing fresh blood in the form of Gen Z readers discovering a “passion for reading.”

But BookTok is not the magic wand the industry likes to fantasise about. It is not noticeably widening the pool of readers, just redirecting them to authors that under the traditional publishing model get short shrift.

It was only last week that the second-largest publisher in the US, HarperCollins, announced a 10% fall in sales and 45% drop in profits.

So much for BookTok.