Storytel’s bigger challenges are that entry into most English-language markets remains unlikely so long as publishers wilfully misunderstand subscription, and entry into emerging markets means much longer ROI times where consumer spending power is (relatively) weaker.
One can almost imagine Jonas Tellander sitting in his office with this year’s entire quarterly results neatly typed up, with just the spaces blank to insert the exact numbers. Absent any new announcements about market launches Storytel’s quarterly reports are fast becoming that predictable.
The only thing actually newsworthy to regulars here at TNPS will be the assertion that Storytel’s global operations will top 1.5 million subscribers before the end of this month.
Other than that it’s just a matter of the precise numbers by which Storytel beat its forecasts. Again.
Just in case there’s anyone here that’s new, Storytel is to launch in Indonesia and Israel shortly and is targeting 40 markets by 2023.
Here are some selected excerpts from the latest press release.
Storytel had an average of 1,442,000 paying subscribers in the fourth quarter of 2020, which is an increase of 81,700 customers compared to the third quarter of 2020, and exceeding the forecast of 1,435,000 paying subscribers that was previously estimated. The annual subscriber growth in the fourth quarter of 2020 was 358,600 customers compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. Streaming revenues for the fourth quarter of 2020 came in at 503.4 MSEK, compared to the forecasted 499.5 MSEK. Annual revenue growth 2020, compared to full-year 2019, amounts to 31%.
The average number of paying Storytel subscribers in the Nordic segment in the fourth quarter of 2020 was 926,000, which corresponds to 4,000 paying subscribers above forecast and a customer base increase of 168,400 subscribers compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. Streaming revenues in the Nordics came in at 399.6 MSEK, which was 3.6 MSEK above forecast. The ARPU for the Nordic segment came in at 144 SEK, which was slightly above forecast.
In the Non-Nordic segment, the average number of subscribers grew by 58.4% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 and totalled 516,000, which corresponds to an annual growth of 190,200 paying subscribers and an increase of 57,700 customers compared to the third quarter of 2020. This exceeded the previously communicated forecast of 513,000 subscribers for the fourth quarter of 2020. Streaming revenues for the Non-Nordic segment totalled 103.8 MSEK in the fourth quarter of 2020, corresponding to an annual revenue growth of 49.9%, compared to the fourth quarter of 2019.
On a full-year basis, Storytel exceeded its revised revenue forecast for 2020 of 1,878 MSEK (originally 1,900 MSEK) and came in at 1,882 MSEK. The company also expects to pass the milestone of 1,500,000 paying customers before the end of January.
But a note of caution. This cannot go on forever. The Nordics markets are increasingly competitive, and elsewhere Storytel faces increasing competition too. The big question right now is where these new markets might be (see links at the end of this post for past speculation on this point).
Storytel’s bigger challenges are that entry into most English-language markets remains unlikely so long as publishers wilfully misunderstand subscription, and entry into emerging markets means much longer ROI times where consumer spending power is (relatively) weaker.
